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19th November 2003 - According to In-Stat/MDR, the
future looks promising for the up and coming low-rate
Wireless PAN (WPAN) technology, 802.15.4, and ZigBee.
The ZigBee specification, now in development, will define
the network, security and application interface layers,
which can be used with an 802.15.4 solution to provide
interoperability. ZigBee Alliance members are definitely
determined to carve out a piece of the wireless pie
for themselves.
According to the high-tech market research firm, however,
quite a bit hinges on the ability of the ZigBee Alliance
to deliver a final specification in a timely manner,
including completed, successful interoperability tests.
If these milestones are not achieved in a reasonable
amount of time, other competing wireless technologies
could take hold in these markets, such as a yet-to-be-determined
low-rate Ultra-Wideband WPAN alternate PHY or a potential
Bluetooth "Lite" version. So, there is an
impetuous to move forward according to schedule.
The heightened interest in 802.15.4/ZigBee wireless
connectivity could slowly make 'The Jetsons' home of
the future a reality, however, it is doubtful we'll
see that automated meal maker any time soon.
In-Stat/MDR has also found that:
- With an aggressive mindset, In-Stat/MDR expects
802.15.4/ZigBee node/chipset annual shipments to break
160 million in 2008.
- Average sales prices will rapidly decline, however,
the average pricing for all shipments will be dependent
on the ratio of reduced function devices to full function
devices.
- Over the forecast period, In-Stat/MDR sees the lion's
share of the 802.15.4/ZigBee market being dominated
by the 2.4GHz band; however, there is significant
activity for 915MHz, primarily in North America. Additional
interest could ensue for 868MHz when more channels
are added for the European band, which is under way.
This Market Alert is drawn from the In-Stat/MDR report,
"Short
Distance Wireless Landscape: Will ZigBee Bring "The
Jetsons" Home to Life?",which gives an
overview of the technology and markets, and provides
forecasts for 2004 - 2008 by application, frequency
band, geographic region, external host MCU vs. single
package, and two forecasts of node/chipset shipments
(units, revenue and ASP) -- one aggressive and one conservative.
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