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17th December 2003 - The market for cellular
power amplifiers will be relatively flat over
the next few years, dropping substantially from
previous years, reports In-Stat/MDR. The high-tech
market research firm expects that in 2003, more
than 2 million cellular power amps are forecast
to be shipped, and by 2007, this number is expected
to drop to 1.9 million units.
The past few years have been tough ones for those
involved in the cellular power amplifier business,
and while the short-term outlook doesn't look
much better, for the long-term there are some
possible signs of encouragement.
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Overall, not surprisingly, W-CDMA power amplifiers
are the type with the best future growth prospects,
but even for this technology, there are several obstacles
that must be overcome. W-CDMA power amps will grow from
nothing a few years ago, to over $640 million in revenue
by 2007.
In-Stat/MDR also found that:
- Global System for Mobile Communication (GSM) power
amps will remain the most popular variety, over the
forecast period, accounting for over 60% of all cellular
power amp revenue.
- Power amp revenue is forecast to be just over $3
billion in 2003, dropping to just under $2.8 billion
in 2007. Within this total, the market for Personal
Digital Cellular (PDC) and Time Division Multiple
Access (TDMA) power amps will disappear next year,
as carriers, worldwide, continue their transition
away from these technologies in favor of others. Although
these two technologies will be in operation for many
years to come, the expansion of existing networks
will slow.
- The Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) market
for power amps should remain stable over the next
few years. While CDMA subscriber growth is expected
to remain strong, the move of carriers to multi-carrier
amps and the increases in the spectrum efficiency
of CDMA technology will decrease what would otherwise
result in an increase in the number of CDMA power
amps shipped.
This Market Alert is drawn from the In-Stat/MDR report,
"Cellular
Power: Cellular Power Amp Market and Forecast",
which covers the market for macro base station power
amplifiers for the major air-interfaces, which include
TDMA, CDMA, GSM, PDC, and W-CDMA. The latest forecasts
are given, through 2007, for cellular power amps broken-out
by region and technology, as well as power amplifier
revenues and power amplifier semiconductor revenues
broken-out by air-interface.
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